There is a lot of talk about the recession bottoming out.

Some have even talked about the recession being over.

The economic recovery will be long and for many businesses will be painful.

Be very careful about what you are listening to or reading in the news media.

No one really knows, and there is certainly no general consensus, as to if and when the economy has hit the official bottom.  When it does, we may not know that for several months or more.

Yes, the stock market is up 25-30% over the low, depending upon the day.  There seems to be some signs of optimism or “rays of hope” out there.

But remember General Motors is on the brink of bankruptcy.  GM is cutting approximately 1100 car dealers.  Chrysler is in bankruptcy and they cut approximately another 800 car dealers.  Because of the auto dealer closings there is an estimated 100,000 people who will be losing their jobs.  Not to mention all of the support businesses that will no longer stay in business due to the loss of the dealerships.

There are also some other storm clouds on the horizon.  For instance, credit card defaults.  And just like the housing mortgage crisis, there is a problem with the seven trillion dollars in commercial property.  It is expected that there will be numerous mortgage defaults on commercial properties around the country over the next couple of years.  Although housing sales may be on the increase, many of those sales are short sales or bankruptcy auctions.  There are still more foreclosures to come on the market.

In addition, there are still a lot of houses that haven’t even come to the market yet.  These houses are owned by people that want to sell but haven’t due to the flood of houses already on the market.  It will take months and months, even years, to bring housing inventories back in line.

So you can see the economy has a way to go yet.  This is not the time to get overly enthusiastic about positive reports in the media.

Yes, there are possible indications of movement in the right direction, but will it hold and remain consistent?  This recession has been brutal on business.  It is not going to change over night into a robust economy again.

How to tell when the recession is over is to look at companies like FedEx, UPS, the trucking companies and the railroads.  When they start hauling more goods and raw materials, you will know that we are getting back to some sense of prosperity.  By looking at the businesses that support business, whether it’s raw materials, packaging or shipping, you’ll be able to see very clearly when the economy rebounds.  Until that time, be cautious.  Be conservative.  Don’t get wrapped up in the hype.

As I have stated before, now is the time you may have the opportunity to hire great employees, buy real estate at a reduced price or even purchase a competitor.  The economy will rebound.  It’s only a matter of time.  Position yourself and your company to take advantage of business opportunities.